Are there any green shoots?

It is a little while since I wrote my last article with my own observations about the economic recession we are still weathering. A lot has happened since then, some experts say we are seeing some signs of recovery, others say we are on our way into a deeper recession, the stances being taken are varied and often conflicting.

This morning I heard on the news that mortgage borrowing increased by 17% last month. I also heard that 350 car manufacturing jobs are being created to produce lithium batteries for cars, here in the UK. Also, it appears that Domino pizzas had a 25% increase in profits for the last year. These are certainly positive signs following all the bad news with which we are bombarded day after day.

In the news today I also read that Asia is seeing an increase in demand for its manufactured goods, and this trend seems to be evident in Japan and China. Also, but by no means insignificant, Israel is experiencing an upturn in its economic fortunes see this link:-

http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=1000482402&fid=942

As a country, Israel is going to be upgraded to the status of a developed country in 2010 according to a report I heard on Israel National Radio a few weeks ago.

Is it possible that the formerly lesser developed economies and those which we used to label third world countries are going to lead the way out of what we are repeatedly being told by our government is a 'Global problem which started in America'?

The experts have indicated that if the worlds largest economies descend into a deeper economic recession then the economies of Russia, South America and theAfrican states will be plunged into much deeper poverty than they currently experience.

On a positive, perhaps wishful note, wouldn't it be nice if those countries now in poverty had an economic growth spurt to lead the rest of the world out of recession? I am not an economist by any stretch of the imagination, so maybe I am living in cloud cuckoo land, but in a world of infinite variety strange things can happen!

P.S. Did you know that the economy of California if it was classed as a country in its own right would be the 8th. largest in the world, it's even bigger than Canada. Also, I recently heard in a discussion recently about their huge budget deficit that there is no provision in American law for a state to go bankrupt, an individual, yes, a corporation, yes, but not a state!

Recession Thoughts

Every day we are bombarded with more news about banks failing, people taking bonuses which reward failure, more firms getting into trading difficulties and an ever growing list of people becoming unemployed from what were once considered to be secure jobs.

The amazing thing, I find, is that despite the information overload of bad news and a grim outlook for the future, people seem to be able to carry on as though nothing is different from the way it was a year ago. In my work, day by day, I meet people who are going about their daily lives quite normally and seem to be if anything more friendly and concerned about my wellbeing than they were previously. There seems to be more time and space to exchange greetings and that loaded question, how are you? To which the current reply seems to be 'I'm good, Thank you.' My preferred reply is usually 'I'm very well, thank you,' or perhaps 'I'm fine, thank you very much'. Often we may not feel fine when we say this, there is a nagging feeling that perhaps not everything is right, but the positive reply reinforces in us a sense that our troubles are trifling in comparison with what many others are going through in their particular circumstances.

What I sense is that maybe there is a possibility that the current 'downturn', 'recession' or whatever appropriate label we may use to describe the current scenario is something we feel we are going through together. From our previously independent way of living and working there may be emerging a cultural shift, one in which we communicate by mobile phone, the internet and even talking to our neighbours over the garden fence or on our doorstep. Materialism and consumerism in this setting may be taking a secondary or even lower place in our thinking and way of life.

Is it possible that it has taken a recession, a breakdown in confidence in our once respected bankers and financiers to draw us closer together? We have lost and are losing many post offices, shops and pubs which once were hubs of social interaction, sometimes mixing business with pleasure. It is my hope that with our human resourcefulness and ability to adapt and embrace new technology we will develop a sense of community and working together which will be a new style of community and society fit for the 21st. Century. There will always be givers and takers in any social setting, maybe now is the time to ask, 'What can I contribute?', 'what can I give', not in the sense of money but in time, encouragement, concern, a willingness to help and listen to others.

It is an ill wind that blows no good, even a recession and its effects could make us a better society and more able to live our daily lives in a more fulfilling way, more people orientated than goal and money orientated. I see the green shoots of recovery as I meet people every day, and those are not shoots of economic growth!